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“One reason might be that you might get less of an exchange rate effect from long-term rates than short-term rates and so that would argue for some of the tightening coming by reducing the balance sheet and not having it all be on short-term rates.” Raising short-term rates tends to boost the value of the dollar, which can slow growth and inflation. Indeed, the dollar’s surge over the past couple years as global investors have sought the safe haven of U.S. assets has slowed exports and pushed down on prices, making it harder for the Fed to get inflation and employment back to target levels. Raising long-term rates by shedding some of the long-term bonds in the Fed’s portfolio may in Rosengren’s view allow long-term rates to rise without also pushing up the dollar. Unemployment has dropped since the financial crisis, to 4.7 percent in December, suggesting, Rosengren said, the Fed is already “running the economy hot.” http://lovetylerward.universitypunjabi.org/2017/01/05/a-useful-overview-of-core-factors-for-career-for-paediatricsA further drop toward 4 percent, he said, could put the expansion in jeopardy by forcing the Fed to lift rates more aggressively in response, which could cut off growth sharply. Historically, Rosengren said, the U.S. central bank has “not been very good at slowing the economy down just a little bit.” Wages have surged recently, with average hourly earnings climbing 2.9 percent in December compared with a year earlier. Employers in the New England region have told Rosengren they are having trouble hiring workers. “This is more widespread than just the highly educated” Rosengren said, noting that he recently heard from restaurateurs who are having trouble finding qualified bakers.
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